After a bit of a trading drought (as well as some struggles at FNM and draft) I really made a bunch of key acquisitions this weekend. I moved a foil Elesh Norn, a Phyrexian Obliterator, and a Hero of Bladehold for a beta Lord of Atlantis (very close to mint) and a Maze of Ith, giving me a $25 profit, as well as trading 3 cards that are almost assuredly at their peak. I also got an Alpha Vesuvan Doppleganger for $30 cash, which seems like a pretty good investment, as it around the $150-170 range. I also picked up a Force of Will for 3 Arcbound Ravagers (I find it easy to get people to trade Force of Wills when they only have one. Making the point that one isn't nearly enough to run in Legacy, and that it will take forever to trade for the others generally gets them willing to move it) and another Bazaar of Baghdad for 6 shock lands and $30. I have no idea where the hell people are finding these random sweet old cards, but hopefully it continues. It took a lot of work, but I got another Alpha Force of Nature for a stack of random junk cards and a Hero of Bladehold. For the life of me, I cannot figure out why people love the card "Praetor's Grasp", but I am pretty sure that given 2 weeks and 500 Praetor's Grasps, I could probably trade up to a house.
It seems like recently, Magic has really been getting to me a lot. I seem to be taking losing a lot harder, and am very frustrated cracking packs for sealed or draft to only get trash, while everyone around me gets at least 2 mythics. I have been doing rather well lately in terms of trading, and while I am rock solid at it, it is getting really hard to grind out a dollar on people. I think that I might need to refrain from being the person to initiate trades, and just wait for people to ask me if I have the cards they are looking for. As a rule of thumb, it is very important to get value when you are trading down, but not nearly as important when trading up. Converting four $1 cards into a Birds of Paradise is a great move, since you are thinning out your random junky cards by upgrading them into a staple, and it really isn't necessary to make a profit there, since you are gaining hidden value in the fact that birds can easily be traded. If given the option between 1,000 Praetor's Grasps (worth .50 each) or a Mox Jet (worth $500), which would you take? Unless you are a psycho, you take the piece of power and smile.
Trading cards can really be visualized through the ideas behind playing a Birthing Pod deck. If your chain looks like this
Birds of Paradise> Runeclaw Bear> Brindle Boar> Giant Spider> Greater Basilisk> Vastwood Gorger
you have successfully converted a 1 drop into a 6 drop. Seems pretty good going from a 0/1 flyer into a 5/6. However, what wasn't explicitly stated was that it took 1 card (Birthing Pod) 11 mana (assuming you pay 0 life, and tap the birds for mana to Pod it) and 5 turns. In the grand scheme of things, this was not really worth the time and effort.
Now look at a good Pod chain
Birds of Paradise> Viridian Emissary > Blade Splicer > Solemn Simulacrum > Geist Honored Monk > Vastwood Gorger (Wanted to have the same end result)
So right there, I spent the same amount of turns and mana using Birthing Pod. However, for the trouble, I ended up getting +2 lands, a 3/3 Golem, 1 card drawn, and +2 1/1 Flying Spirits. When you are trading randomly and just to trade, you are putting the the turns and mana, but only getting a very small upgrade, if any. Gradually you might end up getting some bigger cards, but in the grand scheme of things, it isn't really worth all of the resources you put into it. When you are trading cards, it is important to maximize your gains and get as much value as possible, whether through actual price difference, through ease of future trade (trading cards of the same value, but getting ones with more appeal or upside), of going from standard to modern or Legacy. I was able to trade a Phantasmal Image for 3 Thalia and a Thraben Doomsayer. I was able to not really gain much value (.50), I was able to convert a card that will probably be cycling out very soon for cards that will be around for a while. The fact that phantasmal image was inflated because of the random success of zombies also made the deal beneficial to me, as it is probably as high as it will ever be.
So if I learned anything this month, it is that bad players love Praetor's Grasp. I have no idea why, but I'll be damned if I can keep any of them in my binder.
Recently I have been having an inner dialogue about how much is too much in terms of ripping people off. This ended up leading to more thought about cheating, lying, and dishonesty (There was a Dateline on about kids cheating and how they would react if others around them cheated). So I got to thinking about how I feel on the subject, and what I would do if the opportunity arose. I am pretty sure that if someone has my life total incorrect, and his account of my life total was higher than my account of my life total, I would use his. Thinking about it, why would I put myself in a worse position by telling him that he is wrong. I know that I miss things sometimes, and perhaps his is correct and mine isn't. So if I tell him that it is lower, he may very well go with that cheat me. I think that if I was playing someone, and while shuffling, they dropped a JTMS or an Emrakul, I don't know if I would tell them. It would give me an advantage that they are missing one of their most powerful cards. I don't think that I'd be able to pick the card up after the match and throw it in my binder though. That seems too close to stealing. I guess that a cost/benefit analysis needs to be done on a case by case scenario. When making a trade with someone, I have to decide where on the "Honestly <----->Profit" Spectrum I want to fall in. In general, it would great to build a great trading relationship with everyone, and just do such a huge volume of trades gaining me a dollar or two every time that my binder will grow and grow. However, that really doesn't work too well with smartphones, since people are able to look up the price of every card and don't want to give up any value at all. It feels like trading has become a constant shifting of my card value from some cards to others, not really gaining any profit at all. I think that being a little more aggressive to gain a couple bucks each time, or to constantly trade up is the way to go. That really didn't answer the "Should I rip people off who don't know the value of cards" question. The answer that I have come up with is "You should if you don't ever plan on seeing/trading with them again, and you hedge your bets to varying degrees with everyone else". If you go back to the Beta Trop deal that I made, it was an arduous process that probably added the equivalent's worth of an IRS audit of stress to my life, but I tried very hard not to rip the kid off and gave him more than he wanted. As a result, he has traded the following cards to me: 2 Alpha Force of Nature, a mint Bazaar of Baghdad, Maze of Ith, Beta Lord of Atlantis, Alpha Vesuvan Doppelganger. The fact that I went out of my way to make trading a good experience, he came to me to trade all of the other cards, not giving anyone else an opportunity to get them. That is pretty crazy, since looking at what I got, I probably ended up trading for $1500-$2000 worth of cards from the kid, and made insane profits while doing so. However, he is starting to greatly overvalue his cards (he wanted 4 Foil Gravecrawlers, a Hero of Bladehold, and a Phyrexian Obliterator for the Force of Nature, which was alright value wise, but there is no way that I am going to give up that much for an Alpha card that sees no play anywhere. So we had to talk things out a bit, and I ended up giving up a lot of $1 and $2 cards for it, which worked out well for both of us. Truth be told, I am getting the feeling that the kid might be out of cards I am interested in, so I fear that the carcass has been picked clean (I couldn't think of a better metaphor, as "The well is dry" or things like that imply that it was overused and now exhausted, as opposed to just empty). I think that he said he had Mox Diamonds, and that would be great, but in reality, I think that my next trades with this kid will be when he opens an expensive card that I want to trade up for. I wonder how much more aggressive for profit I could been and still gotten him to trade me all those cards.
I ended up doing alright at Prerelease weekend. The Helvault was a sweet promotion, despite not having anything really sweet in there. I ended up picking up 2 Chain Lightnings and a Sneak Attack, which is a decent addition to the Legacy collection. I am planning on moving all of the mythics and rares I opened for Innistrad lands and stable mythics (Snapcasters, Lilianas, Huntmasters, Sorins). Ideally I will be picking up a bunch of Snapcasters, since I have a lead on trading for a set of Force of Wills, and a set of casters would really make that easier. I can't really imagine what will happen with AVR prices, or what will happen with Standard with the new set out. I would guess that in a month, Tamiyo will be down to $30, Tibalt will be $16, and Temporal Mastery I have no idea on. I think it might stay at 40 or go up a bit if it gets huge in Legacy, but could drop to $25 if it doesn't find a home. I am hoping that the new set refocuses me on trading a little more aggressively to maximize profit, and to more importantly work on ways to grind out a couple bucks instead of not really making any profits with the normal traders.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Saturday, March 31, 2012
The Boom/Bust of Canada, and some more DA packs
So it has been a pretty busy week for me. I ended up going to a "Monday Night Magic" sort of event, and that ended up being alright. I tried zombies, but that didn't pan out. The trades worked out well, though I don't know if I am buying into Modern or selling right now. In the past week I picked up a bunch of shocks, moved them, got 3 Arcbound Ravagers, another Damnation, and lots of random cards. I think that I will gradually try and pick up shocks and Zendikar fetches, as my supply is rather depleted. I hope that they see a small drop in value so I can try and get some long term profit in them. In terms of trading, I think that I am in a spot where I have a huge collection of smaller cards that I need to use to trade up, and a few of the middle of the road cards that can hopefully be used for big stuff. I moved a lot of standard things for Modern/Legacy, getting a Volcanic Island in the process. For 2 Sword of War and Peace, it seems like it was a good deal for me. I moved them and all of my Geist of Saint Traft, though I ended up getting two more recently. This might be the card that I can use for leverage to pick up for 20 and move for 25. I was able to get some value on my trades, though I am worried that I have a lot of cards that have not been moving lately. Right now I have 9 Ghoulcrawlers (4 foil) 4 Messangers, 4 Obliterators, and lots of other random cards. The purchase of all of the bulk has really filled my binder out, and I have been able to move some of the cards, making it rather profitable so far.
So Canada is hell for trading. There is no universal "We can check Starcity" approach, people really didn't want to trade many of their cards, and they were brutal with their offers. For reference, Foil cryptic > Glimmervoid, Spell Snare > $2, and the Merit Lage Token isn't worth $15. Sorry. People were just impossible to trade with, which was pretty disappointing. Over the past week, I was able to cycle some cards and make some profit, which is all I can hope for. I actually trade 4 Inexorable Tide (1 Foil), so that is just great to get rid of them. I am going to have to work on a longer term solution to my Modern/Legacy binder, and that might involve pulling out the sets of cards and ones I want to keep, and perhaps throwing them in another binder (that I don't bring to trade. It might help deal with the issues of having lots of sweet cards around, and should lower the amount of cards I am carrying. Also focusing on trying to "Trade Up" would be a good goal for the next week, since I have lots of the smaller cards, and I think now is a good time to look for cards that are under valued. I am thinking Stromkirk Noble at $5 is a steal, since it is a cornerstone in RDW and vampires, both of which will be casually played if nothing else. Garruk at $15 will be an easy choice to pick up, and Past In Flames for $3.5 is going to give me huge returns in the long term. I am also imagining that Birds of Paradise at $5 is high, so I will try and move those. I guess that right now I am just trying to fight the apathy, as grinding out a few bucks every week isn't really the most thrilling thing in the world, especially when there is little value in my local store and a trip to Canada really didn't yield anything I was looking for. I guess if I saw more cards move (Like the Tides) I would be more motivated, which is strange, because I have been trading really well lately and picked up some godly cards. Also being able to move random older cards should have helped as well. I don't know, perhaps I just have a headache and am moody and whatnot after the PTQ (23rd place, 5-2-1, mulled to 5 at least 3 times, lost a round to a guy drawing a 1 outer, lost a game to a guy drawing a 3 outer, and ended up drawing a round because my Dark Confidant revealed a 2. I really feel like I was battling my deck and battling my opponents' luck. I was really happy with playing the deck (Jund) and I think that I have the potential to Top 8 another PTQ if I play competitive decks like that in the future. I think my goal for this week is to go through my cards and add more to my .50/$1/$2 binder, and focus on trading up for some higher value stuff, hopefully new Planeswalkers and the cards I am trying to stockpile.
Here's what I got from my prize packs. Smaller sample set, but $3 a pack isn't too bad. Not opening any gravecrawlers and only 1 messenger (I think) and 0 Huntmaster really hurts
Pack 1:
Markov Blademaster ($2)
Pack 2:
Lingering Souls ($2.5)
Ghoultree ($1.5)
Foil Scorch the Fields ($.25)
Pack 3:
Increasing Ambition ($1)
Wolfbitten Captive ($1.5)
Pack 4:
Curse of Echoes ($.50)
Pack 5:
Mikaeus, the Unhallowed ($6)
Pack 6:
Zombie Apocalypse ($1)
Elbrus, the Binding Blade ($3.5)
Pack 7:
Immerwolf ($1)
Feed the Pack ($.50)
So Canada is hell for trading. There is no universal "We can check Starcity" approach, people really didn't want to trade many of their cards, and they were brutal with their offers. For reference, Foil cryptic > Glimmervoid, Spell Snare > $2, and the Merit Lage Token isn't worth $15. Sorry. People were just impossible to trade with, which was pretty disappointing. Over the past week, I was able to cycle some cards and make some profit, which is all I can hope for. I actually trade 4 Inexorable Tide (1 Foil), so that is just great to get rid of them. I am going to have to work on a longer term solution to my Modern/Legacy binder, and that might involve pulling out the sets of cards and ones I want to keep, and perhaps throwing them in another binder (that I don't bring to trade. It might help deal with the issues of having lots of sweet cards around, and should lower the amount of cards I am carrying. Also focusing on trying to "Trade Up" would be a good goal for the next week, since I have lots of the smaller cards, and I think now is a good time to look for cards that are under valued. I am thinking Stromkirk Noble at $5 is a steal, since it is a cornerstone in RDW and vampires, both of which will be casually played if nothing else. Garruk at $15 will be an easy choice to pick up, and Past In Flames for $3.5 is going to give me huge returns in the long term. I am also imagining that Birds of Paradise at $5 is high, so I will try and move those. I guess that right now I am just trying to fight the apathy, as grinding out a few bucks every week isn't really the most thrilling thing in the world, especially when there is little value in my local store and a trip to Canada really didn't yield anything I was looking for. I guess if I saw more cards move (Like the Tides) I would be more motivated, which is strange, because I have been trading really well lately and picked up some godly cards. Also being able to move random older cards should have helped as well. I don't know, perhaps I just have a headache and am moody and whatnot after the PTQ (23rd place, 5-2-1, mulled to 5 at least 3 times, lost a round to a guy drawing a 1 outer, lost a game to a guy drawing a 3 outer, and ended up drawing a round because my Dark Confidant revealed a 2. I really feel like I was battling my deck and battling my opponents' luck. I was really happy with playing the deck (Jund) and I think that I have the potential to Top 8 another PTQ if I play competitive decks like that in the future. I think my goal for this week is to go through my cards and add more to my .50/$1/$2 binder, and focus on trading up for some higher value stuff, hopefully new Planeswalkers and the cards I am trying to stockpile.
Here's what I got from my prize packs. Smaller sample set, but $3 a pack isn't too bad. Not opening any gravecrawlers and only 1 messenger (I think) and 0 Huntmaster really hurts
Pack 1:
Markov Blademaster ($2)
Pack 2:
Lingering Souls ($2.5)
Ghoultree ($1.5)
Foil Scorch the Fields ($.25)
Pack 3:
Increasing Ambition ($1)
Wolfbitten Captive ($1.5)
Pack 4:
Curse of Echoes ($.50)
Pack 5:
Mikaeus, the Unhallowed ($6)
Pack 6:
Zombie Apocalypse ($1)
Elbrus, the Binding Blade ($3.5)
Pack 7:
Immerwolf ($1)
Feed the Pack ($.50)
The Incredible Bulk and the End of the Modern PTQ Season
So this week was rather productive. Beyond trading for a Bazaar of Baghdad, I ended up buying $74 worth of bulk rares from someone. For the mere price of .10 each, my collection added around 700 "junk" rares and 20 Foil Junk rares. This is one of the best investment I could have made. Off the bat, at any point, I can take them all to a store and get my money back. Beyond that, any cards in there that really weren't bulk (like 4 Thraben Doomsayers and 3 Helvaults, off the top of my deck). There was at least 50% of the pile that was Innistrad+DA, and another 30% was Scars block. Any card that I can move for .50+ is all profit, and it does give me a lot more ammo for smaller trades. I was able to fill out some gaps in my binder, especially with DA cards, and am gearing up for the next week's PTQ. It will be the end of the Modern season, and it is a good time to take a look at my stock and set some goals for the rest of the year. So this is what I am at.
Top Tier Stuff:
6 Revised Badlands
4 Revised Bayou
1 FBB Bayou (Italian)
7 Revised Plateau (1 HP)
1 Unlimited Plateau
2 Revised Savannah
2 Unlimited Savannah
5 Revised Scrubland
1 FBB Scrubland (French)
6 Revised Taiga
6 Revised Tropical Island
1 Beta Tropical Island
6 Revised Tundra
1 Unlimited Tundra
5 Revised Underground Sea (1 Italian)
6 Revised Volcanic Island
1 FBB Volcanic Island (Italian)
Mox Pearl
Bazaar Of Baghdad
So yeah, bragging aside, by the end of the year, I would love to have a total of 2 playsets of duals. That would mean that I would need 19 more duals Overall, that isn't too bad, as I am only missing 6 blue duals, which are the most expensive. Beyond that, I would like to continue working on my Legacy staples, which would include 4 Wastelands and finishing up a set of all of the fetchlands. Then there are staples that would be rather helpful. I would also like to pick up a second set of Force of Will so that I could either use them to trade up or let someone use them.
In terms of Modern stuff, I don't really know if I should be in a Buy or a Sell mode. It seems like there might not be too much of a reason to move the Ravnica duals, though I am still afraid of a reprinting hurting the investment. Beyond that, there really is no data on how card prices fluctuate as a result of a rotation after the huge jump in card values, so I am sort of acting blindly. In reality, moving the Shocklands for other staples is the safe move, which is what I am going to do. I only have 5 Shocks (I think) so I don't think that it will be too hard to get rid of them. I can't really see a price jump for them, so getting rid of them now seems to be the best move. I will gladly trade for a set when they are reprinted and the price drops significantly. Until then, it is a shaky place to have value. Overall, I have been pretty happy with my progress lately in terms of trading. I have been moving a lot of standard cards for eternal cards. The big thing would be to start working on trading up random EDH/Modern cards to get either top tier stuff or things that are easier to move. Realistically, there are isn't a bigger tournament until June, with a SCG in Columbus. So that seems to really restrict what I am able to trade, as the trading at my local store has sort of dried up some. You can't get blood from a turnip, and for the most part, the good Modern and Legacy cards have been traded for. Beyond that, smart phones seem to be eating up profits as well. I think that I am going to need to try and refrain from trading the really expensive standard cards, because trading down doesn't really do too much at this point. I might need to start storing the expensive standard stuff in the good binder to avoid the "Oh, I want that card" situations where I end up trading down for value. I need to work on getting the top tier standard cards that won't be going anywhere any time soon. Foil Lingering Souls, Foil Delver of Secrets, and Thalia will be my targets for next week (though foil delvers and lingering souls will be rather hard to pick up as there are not too many in the local pool). I really need to work on moving the chaff for the cards that should have long term value, or at least cards that will be easy to move. This would include snapcasters, as I only really have my playset for standard. Trading is essentially taking a bunch of small cards of converting them into a more expensive card, then converting that card into more smaller ones, grinding out a small profit both times. At this point, I don't really have that many of the expensive cards, and I am flooded with the smaller value ones. So my two biggest goals for the next few months are to upgrade the cards I have now, try and eat into the box of extras I have, and work towards identifying and hoarding cards that I feel will jump after rotation. I should also work on coming up with a deck that will do well at FNM so I can have more packs (though I am sitting on a bunch as it is) I have not been performing as well as I would like over the last few weeks, so perhaps it is time to tighten up my play, or at least run a deck that is more resilient. I think that my stumbles this week were just running into some bad draws on my part and great draws on theirs (turn 1 delver, turn 2 delver+delver, turn 3 flip them all). Drafting was a little rough, as I was around some people who really didn't know how to draft and I got partially cut from both sides. On the plus side I left with a Messanger, a Woodland Cemetary, 2 Tragic Slip, and about 6 random rares. Broken drafts happen, but at least I was able to get a lot of value drafting the money rares.
So overall, I guess that I have my goals, have figured out what I want to do, and have obtained the raw materials to get it done. I am going to hope to make about 4 trades a week, and try to reduce the number of cards in my binder by 9 a week (not counting the cards I add by drafting). This should hopefully slow down the growth of my binder, as it is pretty much maxed out, and I might need to consider working out something with 2 binders, as the binder will not be able to hold Avacyn Restored and M13 in it. It is a good thing to have a binder so full, but at the same time, it seems like most of the cards will be in my possession forever (Magnetic Mine and Prototype Portal). I guess that is the life of bulk cards. I guess the same thing would probably be said about so many other cards that I ended up moving recently. It seems like an endless battle trying to convert junk cards into Legacy cards. I am glad that I have been able to get some real tangible results with trading (as my new Big Three have really motivated me into maximizing my collection so that I can trade for big ticket items when they come around).
Short Term Goals, Aiming for these by June 1, 2012. These are the cards I am expecting to jump in value post rotation, so I hope to stock up on them now:
20 Dungeon Geists
24 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
8 of each Innistrad Dual Land
24 Increasing Savagery
12 Bloodline Keeper
12 Garruk Relentless
4 Olivia Voldaren
24 Past in Flames
24 Champion of the Parish
12 Daybreak Ranger
24 Elite Inquisitor
24 Stromkirk Noble
24 Increasing Devotion
24 Thraben Doomsayer
My Want List, Aiming for December 31, 2012. While I don't plan on having all of this, I will at least have something to work for:
2 Badlands
3 Bayou
4 Savannah
2 Scrubland
2 Taiga
1 Tropical Island
1 Tundra
3 Underground Sea
1 Volcanic Island
4 Wasteland
1 Windswept Heath
4 Flooded Strand
2 Sneak Attack
4 Show and Tell
4 Progenitus
4 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
1 Karakas
3 Force of Will
3 Green Sun's Zenith (no idea why I can't pick these up)
3 Noble Hierarch
4 Jace, The Mind Sculptor
2 Intuition
24 Snapcaster Mage
Top Tier Stuff:
6 Revised Badlands
4 Revised Bayou
1 FBB Bayou (Italian)
7 Revised Plateau (1 HP)
1 Unlimited Plateau
2 Revised Savannah
2 Unlimited Savannah
5 Revised Scrubland
1 FBB Scrubland (French)
6 Revised Taiga
6 Revised Tropical Island
1 Beta Tropical Island
6 Revised Tundra
1 Unlimited Tundra
5 Revised Underground Sea (1 Italian)
6 Revised Volcanic Island
1 FBB Volcanic Island (Italian)
Mox Pearl
Bazaar Of Baghdad
So yeah, bragging aside, by the end of the year, I would love to have a total of 2 playsets of duals. That would mean that I would need 19 more duals Overall, that isn't too bad, as I am only missing 6 blue duals, which are the most expensive. Beyond that, I would like to continue working on my Legacy staples, which would include 4 Wastelands and finishing up a set of all of the fetchlands. Then there are staples that would be rather helpful. I would also like to pick up a second set of Force of Will so that I could either use them to trade up or let someone use them.
In terms of Modern stuff, I don't really know if I should be in a Buy or a Sell mode. It seems like there might not be too much of a reason to move the Ravnica duals, though I am still afraid of a reprinting hurting the investment. Beyond that, there really is no data on how card prices fluctuate as a result of a rotation after the huge jump in card values, so I am sort of acting blindly. In reality, moving the Shocklands for other staples is the safe move, which is what I am going to do. I only have 5 Shocks (I think) so I don't think that it will be too hard to get rid of them. I can't really see a price jump for them, so getting rid of them now seems to be the best move. I will gladly trade for a set when they are reprinted and the price drops significantly. Until then, it is a shaky place to have value. Overall, I have been pretty happy with my progress lately in terms of trading. I have been moving a lot of standard cards for eternal cards. The big thing would be to start working on trading up random EDH/Modern cards to get either top tier stuff or things that are easier to move. Realistically, there are isn't a bigger tournament until June, with a SCG in Columbus. So that seems to really restrict what I am able to trade, as the trading at my local store has sort of dried up some. You can't get blood from a turnip, and for the most part, the good Modern and Legacy cards have been traded for. Beyond that, smart phones seem to be eating up profits as well. I think that I am going to need to try and refrain from trading the really expensive standard cards, because trading down doesn't really do too much at this point. I might need to start storing the expensive standard stuff in the good binder to avoid the "Oh, I want that card" situations where I end up trading down for value. I need to work on getting the top tier standard cards that won't be going anywhere any time soon. Foil Lingering Souls, Foil Delver of Secrets, and Thalia will be my targets for next week (though foil delvers and lingering souls will be rather hard to pick up as there are not too many in the local pool). I really need to work on moving the chaff for the cards that should have long term value, or at least cards that will be easy to move. This would include snapcasters, as I only really have my playset for standard. Trading is essentially taking a bunch of small cards of converting them into a more expensive card, then converting that card into more smaller ones, grinding out a small profit both times. At this point, I don't really have that many of the expensive cards, and I am flooded with the smaller value ones. So my two biggest goals for the next few months are to upgrade the cards I have now, try and eat into the box of extras I have, and work towards identifying and hoarding cards that I feel will jump after rotation. I should also work on coming up with a deck that will do well at FNM so I can have more packs (though I am sitting on a bunch as it is) I have not been performing as well as I would like over the last few weeks, so perhaps it is time to tighten up my play, or at least run a deck that is more resilient. I think that my stumbles this week were just running into some bad draws on my part and great draws on theirs (turn 1 delver, turn 2 delver+delver, turn 3 flip them all). Drafting was a little rough, as I was around some people who really didn't know how to draft and I got partially cut from both sides. On the plus side I left with a Messanger, a Woodland Cemetary, 2 Tragic Slip, and about 6 random rares. Broken drafts happen, but at least I was able to get a lot of value drafting the money rares.
So overall, I guess that I have my goals, have figured out what I want to do, and have obtained the raw materials to get it done. I am going to hope to make about 4 trades a week, and try to reduce the number of cards in my binder by 9 a week (not counting the cards I add by drafting). This should hopefully slow down the growth of my binder, as it is pretty much maxed out, and I might need to consider working out something with 2 binders, as the binder will not be able to hold Avacyn Restored and M13 in it. It is a good thing to have a binder so full, but at the same time, it seems like most of the cards will be in my possession forever (Magnetic Mine and Prototype Portal). I guess that is the life of bulk cards. I guess the same thing would probably be said about so many other cards that I ended up moving recently. It seems like an endless battle trying to convert junk cards into Legacy cards. I am glad that I have been able to get some real tangible results with trading (as my new Big Three have really motivated me into maximizing my collection so that I can trade for big ticket items when they come around).
Short Term Goals, Aiming for these by June 1, 2012. These are the cards I am expecting to jump in value post rotation, so I hope to stock up on them now:
20 Dungeon Geists
24 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
8 of each Innistrad Dual Land
24 Increasing Savagery
12 Bloodline Keeper
12 Garruk Relentless
4 Olivia Voldaren
24 Past in Flames
24 Champion of the Parish
12 Daybreak Ranger
24 Elite Inquisitor
24 Stromkirk Noble
24 Increasing Devotion
24 Thraben Doomsayer
My Want List, Aiming for December 31, 2012. While I don't plan on having all of this, I will at least have something to work for:
2 Badlands
3 Bayou
4 Savannah
2 Scrubland
2 Taiga
1 Tropical Island
1 Tundra
3 Underground Sea
1 Volcanic Island
4 Wasteland
1 Windswept Heath
4 Flooded Strand
2 Sneak Attack
4 Show and Tell
4 Progenitus
4 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
1 Karakas
3 Force of Will
3 Green Sun's Zenith (no idea why I can't pick these up)
3 Noble Hierarch
4 Jace, The Mind Sculptor
2 Intuition
24 Snapcaster Mage
Friday, March 23, 2012
Bazaar Trader
So in the aftermath of GP Nashville, I find myself with a lot of practically complete decks, but nothing fully refined and ready to go. I might work on building some form of Pod deck, but I don't know. I think that I am going to work on updating a Puresteel Paladin deck and see if I can't get that back off the ground. I made a few trades this week, but didn't really bother trying to keep track of them. It is not very easy when you are around a bunch of people you know and are taking notes on everything. I am planning on investing pretty hard in Thalia, as well as Dark Ascension. I have been working on identifying some of the key cards in Innistrad and DA that will jump in value, so I am working on stockpiling them. Thalia, Increasing Savagery, and Dungeon Geists seem to be under the radar, while Vamps like Stromkirk Noble and Zombies with Messanger and Gravecrawler are pretty high right now. I think that if Sorin dips to $25 that I will try and pick a bunch up, and the same with Liliana. While the new set will bring a lot of stuff, there are some cards that are just no loss right now. It seems like Dark Ascension is rather underpriced, and I feel like if I can work towards getting a bunch of Dungeon Geists right now and close my eyes to any drop in price, that I should do well in the long term. This would also mean taking them out of my binder and not trading them.
I ended up moving the Foil Sorin for a Jitte, an Elesh Norn, a Steam Vents, and a Thalia. I am really going to bank on her going up. At $4 right now, I get the feeling that there is profit to be made, which is why I made sure to get two playsets today. I also might be using 4 for a Zoo build for Modern. I feel like my binder is awkward now because I have around 80% of the cards for any given deck I want to run, but don't know what to run so I can't track down the missing cards. I figure that just throwing together a Puresteel brew (Thinking WB) will get me back on track. Lingering souls is really good right now, and being able to have a boatload of sword carrying dudes seems like it is really good. Also, while clunky, going UW/b for Souls might be even better. Not really sure. Gotta figure it out. I am thinking a 1 of Wolfhunter's Quiver might be good as a Trinket Mage target, and that Increasing Devotion seems rather good.
I ended up making a deal to pick up a Bazaar of Baghdad off someone. It was in really good shape, so I was alright paying high for it and also throwing some money in there (I would gladly include cash on a deal like this. It is strange, because at the end last year, my collection was growing, but I didn't feel like it was anything special. In the last few months, I have been picking up some amazing cards, getting 2 FBB duals, a Beta Trop, a Mox Pearl, and now a Bazaar of Baghdad. I am hoping that by the end of the year, I have the best collection in the city (that didn't pay cash for Power). Seems more than reasonable if things continue the way that they have been. I get the feeling that I need to come up with some goals for trading, to figure out what I really want. Might work on that in the next few days, as taking some time to think about it is probably necessary. So here's the big trade.
3 Spawnsire of Ulamog ($4.50)
4 Silence ($8)
Hellion Eruption ($.50)
Gravitational Shift ($.50)
Wrexial, the Deep Risen ($1.50)
2 Training Grounds ($4)
Comet Storm ($1.50)
2 Celestial Mantle ($3)
2 Isochron Scepter ($14)
Promo Memnite ($4)
2 Increasing Confusion ($3)
2 Signal Pest ($2)
Nissa Revane ($6)
Lake of the Dead ($8)
Boom/Bust ($1)
Progenitus ($15)
Etched Champion ($4)
Phyrexian Obliterator ($25)
Jace, Memory Adept ($15)
Curse of Death's Hold ($2.50)
Kessig Cagebreakers ($1.50)
4 Sulfur Falls ($20)
Chandra's Phoenix ($7)
2 Quicksilver Amulet ($4)
Total:$155.50 + $50 cash + $25 Binder Credit
GOT: Bazaar of Baghdad
THOUGHTS: The condition of the Bazaar was really good, which was one of the key factors in the higher price. I was expecting to get it for around $180, but he wanted more, and since we have had a rather good history of trading (the Trop), I felt that while his asking price was a little high, I was alright with it. After going through my binders (he took about $25 out of those .50/1/2/3 binders that I set up for the GP and never pulled out) we were able to get close, so I was happy to clear out a bunch of non-standard stuff, as a lot of it was sitting at home and not really doing anything. Being able to move a bunch of cards to pick up a treasure is the ideal trade. My binder shrunk 38 cards, and the Bazaar is going to stay at home. I am seriously thinking about getting a safe to protect my valuables, and with the recent flow of expensive cards, it might be something worth looking into. It is strange that I now have four cards that are worth over $200 each (Mox Pearl, FBB Volcanic Island, Bazaar, and Trop). I think that I need to go through my collection and figure out what I want to aim for by the end of the year. Stay tuned
I ended up moving the Foil Sorin for a Jitte, an Elesh Norn, a Steam Vents, and a Thalia. I am really going to bank on her going up. At $4 right now, I get the feeling that there is profit to be made, which is why I made sure to get two playsets today. I also might be using 4 for a Zoo build for Modern. I feel like my binder is awkward now because I have around 80% of the cards for any given deck I want to run, but don't know what to run so I can't track down the missing cards. I figure that just throwing together a Puresteel brew (Thinking WB) will get me back on track. Lingering souls is really good right now, and being able to have a boatload of sword carrying dudes seems like it is really good. Also, while clunky, going UW/b for Souls might be even better. Not really sure. Gotta figure it out. I am thinking a 1 of Wolfhunter's Quiver might be good as a Trinket Mage target, and that Increasing Devotion seems rather good.
I ended up making a deal to pick up a Bazaar of Baghdad off someone. It was in really good shape, so I was alright paying high for it and also throwing some money in there (I would gladly include cash on a deal like this. It is strange, because at the end last year, my collection was growing, but I didn't feel like it was anything special. In the last few months, I have been picking up some amazing cards, getting 2 FBB duals, a Beta Trop, a Mox Pearl, and now a Bazaar of Baghdad. I am hoping that by the end of the year, I have the best collection in the city (that didn't pay cash for Power). Seems more than reasonable if things continue the way that they have been. I get the feeling that I need to come up with some goals for trading, to figure out what I really want. Might work on that in the next few days, as taking some time to think about it is probably necessary. So here's the big trade.
3 Spawnsire of Ulamog ($4.50)
4 Silence ($8)
Hellion Eruption ($.50)
Gravitational Shift ($.50)
Wrexial, the Deep Risen ($1.50)
2 Training Grounds ($4)
Comet Storm ($1.50)
2 Celestial Mantle ($3)
2 Isochron Scepter ($14)
Promo Memnite ($4)
2 Increasing Confusion ($3)
2 Signal Pest ($2)
Nissa Revane ($6)
Lake of the Dead ($8)
Boom/Bust ($1)
Progenitus ($15)
Etched Champion ($4)
Phyrexian Obliterator ($25)
Jace, Memory Adept ($15)
Curse of Death's Hold ($2.50)
Kessig Cagebreakers ($1.50)
4 Sulfur Falls ($20)
Chandra's Phoenix ($7)
2 Quicksilver Amulet ($4)
Total:$155.50 + $50 cash + $25 Binder Credit
GOT: Bazaar of Baghdad
THOUGHTS: The condition of the Bazaar was really good, which was one of the key factors in the higher price. I was expecting to get it for around $180, but he wanted more, and since we have had a rather good history of trading (the Trop), I felt that while his asking price was a little high, I was alright with it. After going through my binders (he took about $25 out of those .50/1/2/3 binders that I set up for the GP and never pulled out) we were able to get close, so I was happy to clear out a bunch of non-standard stuff, as a lot of it was sitting at home and not really doing anything. Being able to move a bunch of cards to pick up a treasure is the ideal trade. My binder shrunk 38 cards, and the Bazaar is going to stay at home. I am seriously thinking about getting a safe to protect my valuables, and with the recent flow of expensive cards, it might be something worth looking into. It is strange that I now have four cards that are worth over $200 each (Mox Pearl, FBB Volcanic Island, Bazaar, and Trop). I think that I need to go through my collection and figure out what I want to aim for by the end of the year. Stay tuned
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Spoils of War
So it was a rather interesting GP. Trip aside, it was not as I had expected it. There were only around 1000 people in the actual tournament, which would hurt when it came to the volume of trades I was able to complete. I also realize that actually playing in the tournament prevents from a lot of trading, which is something that I will consider in the future. Beyond that, the trading went well, and I ended up +$307 on the weekend, though there was not really much trading done on Sunday (another thing to keep in mind). So here is what I did.
GAVE: 2 Phyrexian Metamorph ($18), 2 Gideon ($20) Total=$38
GOT: 2 Snapcaster Mage ($50), Vampire Nocturnus Promo, beat to hell($7.5), Shared Fate, Leveler Total=$57.50
PROFIT=$19.50
THOUGHTS: First deal of the day and it was great. Trading for just the Snapcasters would have been solid, but also getting the Promo Vampire Nocturnus was nice, as it was a throw in for him since the bottom right corner was bent and starting to split. I also got him to throw in a Shared Fate (sentimental reasons) and a Leveler.
GAVE: Immerwolf ($1), Stromkirk Captain ($1) Total=$2
GOT: Predator Ooze ($2.50)
PROFIT= $.50
THOUGHTS: The kid really didn't have many good cards that he wanted to part with, so I decided to upgrade some smaller cards for a bigger one, with a little bit of profit. While this isn't a home run like the previous trade, it is important to try and trade with as many people as you can, and try to get some sort of advantage (either some value or upgrading smaller cards for bigger ones).
GAVE: 2 Buy A box Day of Judgment ($16), Foil Day of Judgment ($4), 2 day of Judgment ($6) Total=$26
GOT: Promo Zombie Apocalypse ($8), Garruk Relentless ($15), Gravecrawler ($10) Total=$33
PROFIT=$7
THOUGHTS: Picking up Gravecrawlers and Messangers seemed to be the way this weekend was going to play out, since they were valued in between 6-10, and picking them up at anything less than 10 was going to be a great profit. The guy really just wanted lots of DOJ, which was fine, since I got some profit. I think Garruk Relentless is going to jump when Scars rotates, so picking them up at $15 seems like a good price. I think that I might take them out of my trade binder and horde them until rotation. The promo Apocalypse isn't really listed on any site, but asking $8 for it seems reasonable.
GAVE: Crucible of Worlds ($25), Vendilion Clique ($35), 3 Time Reversal (4.50) Total=$64.50
GOT: marsh Flats ($10), 2 Verdant Catacombs ($20), Flusterstorm ($16), Ancient Tomb ($10), Riptide Labratory ($13) Total=$69
PROFIT=$4.50
THOUGHTS: Not the greatest trade for me, since I gave up two real playables in Crucible and Clique for some Zen Fetches and other stuff. The Flusterstorm was a great pick up, because they are very rare, and the Tomb and Riptide are Legacy fringe playables, so I was alright with it. Honestly, I thought Clique was only $30, not $35, so the trade was a lot better in my head. It happens though. The fact that there was enough profit built up in my mind means that being wrong on a price won't really burn me. Also getting rid of Time Reversals for $1.50 each was great.
GAVE: 2 Gravecrawler ($20), Phyrexian Obliterator ($25) Total=$45
GOT: 3 Foil Go for the Throat ($12), Foil Geralf's Messanger ($15), 2 Game day Memnite ($8), Buy a Box day of Judgment ($7), Foil Diregraf Ghoul ($2.50) Grim Lavamancer ($3.5) Total=$48
PROFIT=$3
THOUGHTS: Again, I was off on some of the values. I thought that the foil Go For the Throats were around $6-8 each, which would have given me another $6-12 in profit. However, I might be able to move them at $8, which would be sweet. Getting the Foil Messanger was nice, since I planned on moving it at $20.
GAVE: Snapcaster Mage ($25), Falkanrath Aristocrat ($7) Total=$32
GOT: 3 Promo Goblin Guide ($45)
PROFIT=$13
THOUGHTS: People really undervalued the Promo Guide since they were all over. I hope to be able to move 4 of them as a set to try and get some really good modern or Legacy playables.
GAVE: 2 Foil Isolated Chapel ($30), 2 Foil Galvanic Blast ($8) Total=$38
GOT: Foil Cryptic Command ($25), Isolated Chapel ($10), Gravecrawler ($10) Total=$45
PROFIT=$7
THOUGHTS: This was a time when I had no real idea what the Foil Cryptic was worth, so I had to guess. I put it at $20 for him, but thought it might have been worth $40. It was only $25, so I didn't get as much profit out of the deal as I wanted. It seems like I was off on a few estimations, but even though that was the case, having high profit built in helps to avoid getting burned.
GAVE: Snapcaster Mage ($25), 2 Elspeth, Knight Errant Promo ($40), 2 Thorn of Amathyst ($5), Akroma's Memorial ($15), 3 Baneslayer Angel ($21), Urborg, Tomb of Urborg ($18) Total=$124
GOT: Underground Sea ($140)
PROFIT=$16
THOUGHTS: This was a great trade for me, since I was able to move a lot of random smaller cards for the best dual. On some sites, duals are priced at around $120, so I was fine putting it at that. I was happy moving the Elspeths and Urborg, since they are modern playables, which should drop some in the next few months. Baneslayers went up in price a little bit (Thought they were $5 each), and Memorial is a real casual/EDH card that is hard to move. This completed my set of Dual Lands, so I was happy about that.
GAVE: 2 Vorinclix, Voice of Hunger ($8), Elspth, Knight Errant ($30) Total=$38
GOT: 3 Geralf's Messanger ($30), Promo Goblin Guide ($15), 2 Birds of Paradise ($8), Champion of the Parish ($6), 2 Time Reversal ($3) Total=$62
PROFIT=$24
THOUGHTS: These are the kind of trades that I strive for. The guy really devalued most of his cards, which means I was really able to get value trading down. This gave me a set of Promo Guides, helped gie me some more birds, and 3 Messangers will help to fuel more trades later on.
GAVE: Drowned Catacombs ($7), 2 Sulfur Falls ($12), 3 Foil Basic Lands ($3) Total=$22
GOT: 4 Goblin Guide ($24), Ratchet Bomb ($10) Total=$34
PROFIT=$12
THOUGHTS: This was like the previous trade where the guy NEEDED something, and was undervaluing cards so he would get the lands he needed. I was happy to get some value and boost my binder.
GAVE: 2 Gravecrawler ($20), 3 Geralf's Messanger ($30), Glissa the Traitor ($3.50), Thalia, Guardian of Thrabin ($4), Gideon Jura ($10), Daybreak Ranger ($2.50) Total=$70
GOT: 4 Sulfur Falls ($24), 3 hinterland Harbor ($15), Batterskull ($15), Karn Liberated ($15), 3 Grim lavamancer ($10.50)= Total=$79.50
PROFIT= $9.50
THOUGHTS: This guy was severely undervaluing the Innistrad lands ($4/$3 respectively) so I was able to move some staples for lands (Lands are a lot easier to trade) and pick up some cards I might actually use, like Karn. I am picking up some lavamancers, since they are low in price, and if red gets 1-2 strong cards in the next set, RDW might be positioned to return.
GAVE: 3 Ratchet Bomb ($30), 2 Geralf's Messanger ($20), Gravecrawler ($10), Huntmaster of the Fells ($30), Geist of Saint Traft ($25), 3 Champion of the Parish ($18) Total=$133
GOT: Steam Vents ($30), Foil Aether Fial (MP)($20), city of Traitors ($25), 3 Lotus Cobra ($18), Tiaga ($70), Melira ($1.50) Total=$164.50
PROFIT=$31.50
THOUGHTS:This trade was nuts because he was really undervaluing his cards. He put Vents at 20, the Vial at 20 (it had a crease in the bottom right corner, but it is a foil and should be able to trade for $25), and put his City of Traitors at $18. While the trade looks really good, taking a deeper analysis shows how much I killed in it. All of the cards I traded were standard, and I picked up mostly Legacy staples. These trades are the ones that really help boosting a binder and protecting the value of your cards from devaluation.
GAVE: 6 Arid Mesa ($60), 3 Scalding Tarn ($45), Scavenging Ooze ($20), Misty Rainforst ($15) Total=$150
GOT: Wooded Foothills ($22), Tundra ($120) Total=$142
PROFIT=$-8
THOUGHTS: I will admit that I thought that Wooded Foothills was $35, which would have given me a $5 profit. While it seems like I was off on a lot of prices this weekend, that will happen a lot when dealing with all Magic cards. I hated getting rid of Ooze, but moving it for a dual was fine, and losing out on a few bucks doesn't bother me when I move 10 Zen fetches for a Tundra. Sometimes trades are losses, and it is important to limit them. Even though this was a loss, converting Modern cards for Legacy stuff has a value to it as well, so I won't lose sleep over it.
GAVE: Foil Geralf's Messanger ($15)
GOT: Geralf's Messanger ($10), 2 Mosswort Bridge ($4), Foil Ad Nauseum ($4) Total=$18
PROFIT=$3
THOUGHTS: I was happy trading a foil card for a regular copy and a lot of value. While Mosswort Bridge isn't really popular, it sees some modern play and I can probably move them. Beyond that, getting a foil Ad Nauseum is cool because I can probably move it at $7 to a Legacy player.
GAVE: 4 Goblin Guide ($24), Foil Slash Panther ($1.50) Total=$25.50
GOT: Garruk Relentless ($15), Thalia, guardian of Thraben ($4), Promo Grim lavamancer ($3.5), Foil Frost Titan ($4) Total=$26.50
PROFIT=$1
THOUGHTS: While I didn't really gain too much on this, I felt that picking up Garruk would be a good longer term investment, and that the Foil Frost Titan might trade for $6 to someone who wanted it for a cube or EDH deck. Also Goblin Guides won't be in demand in a month, so converting them to cards I can move should help my binder generate quicker.
GAVE: 4 Asceticism ($8), Foil black Sun's Zenith ($12), Sunpetal Grove ($3) Total=$23
GOT: Phyrexian Obliterator ($25)
PROFIT=$2
THOUGHTS: The BSZ sees play, but the other cards are really on the sidelines right now. Moving them to get something I can quickly move should help keep the binder fresh, and trading up for a profit is one of the best things you can do in terms of trading.
GAVE: 2 Drogskul Reaver ($10), 2 Sorin Markov ($12), 3 Geralf's Messanger ($30), Dungeon Geists ($6), 4 Endless Ranks of the Dead ($8), 1 Mikeaus the Lunarch ($4), 4 Stromkirk Noble ($32), Bloodline Keeper ($7), Balefire Dragon ($2), Massacre Worm ($5), 2 Etched Champion ($10), Sunpetal Grove ($3) Total=$126
GOT: Foil Qusali Pridemage ($4), 2 Mishra's Factory (Russian) ($12) Foil Chinese Black Sun's Zenith ($15), Underground Sea ($130)= Total=$161
PROFIT=$35
THOUGHTS: I was able to kill on this trade because he was fine putting the Underground Sea at $100, since it had some play on it. I wanted the BSZ and Pridemage, since foils trade well. The Factories were cool, and I wanted them because I want to run them if I ever play Factory in Legacy. The guy only went through my Standard binder, which was nice, because getting rid of standard for Legacy and making a profit is the best way to trade. Having separate binders really helped this weekend with standard to legacy conversion.
GAVE: 2 Jace the Mind sculptor ($110), Death Baron ($10), Serra Ascendent ($4), Life from the Loam ($15), 4 Blinkmoth Nexus ($60) Total=$199
GOT: FBB Scrubland ($145), 4 Vampire Nocturnus ($80), Volrath's Stronghold ($20), Witchbane Orb ($1) Total=$246
PROFIT=$47
THOUGHTS: Initially, the guy was valuing the Scrubland at around $225. I told him that I wanted to trade for it, but that there was no way it was worth that much. He said that he couldn't go any lower, but I was able to reason with him and get him to come to his senses and price it correctly at around $145. I hated giving up Jaces, but in reality, it was the only way I could get the Scrubland, and I really wanted that Scrubland. Foreign Black Border dual lands are very rare, and they are the "Pimp" version of dual lands (since most people are priced out of Beta duals). I figured that since I paid $30 cash for a Jace, and traded a Huntmaster of the Fells and a Mox Opal for the other, I really was getting a great deal on it if I took into account how I got them initially. I was able to make such a huge profit because he severely undervalued the Nocturnus and Stronghold ($12/$10 respectively) and while they might not be the easiest cards to move, I know that I should be able to dump them for something big, or move them for value to someone else who wants to try and get profit from the casual players.
GAVE: 5 Life from the Loam ($75), Noble Hierarch ($20), Watery Grave ($20), 4 Knight of the Reliquary ($44) Total=$149
GOT:3 Steam Vents ($90), 2 Intuition ($70) Total=$160
PROFIT=$11
THOUGHTS: This guy had the second best binder that I have ever seen in my life (Mine is not the best). He had pages and pages of all of the staples and duals and had 1-2 of each piece of power. He had a list of cards he needed (Noble, Grave, Loam) and I was able to get some value on him. He was a really nice guy, and I was shocked that he valued everything very fair and reasonable (he put the Watery Grave at like $25 and the Steam Vents at $22, so I was able to get a little value). We talked a while, and I learned a lot about gaining value on people and boosting my binder. I ended up saving him about $400 later on when he was trying to trade for a beta Scrubland from someone. I was going to trade for it, but I was in the middle of a trade so he got the first chance. I told him to have a dealer check it if was real, and to give a grade on it for pricing purposes. He came back and the Scrubland was split in half. It was apparently a CE card that was glued to a different card back. I was happy that it was discovered. That is why I always get cards valued over $100 authenticated by a dealer before moving them.
GAVE: 2 Huntmaster of the Fells ($60)
GOT:Foil Surgical Extraction ($12), Foil Strangleroot Geist ($6), Garruk Relentless ($15), Geist of Saint traft ($25), Elite Inquisitor ($2) Total=$60
Profit=$0
THOUGHTS: The guy pulled out his phone early and went to StarCity, so I knew I was not going to get any value. However, I was able to use this to my advantage and pick up cards I speculate were going to go up in value. Foil extraction will see Legacy play forever, Foil Strangeleroot should be moved easily, and Garruk is my sleeper for post rotation. I was having a hard time moving the Huntmasters, so I was happy to get rid of them (though I might want to run 1 in a Pod deck for FNM on Friday, so that is annoying)
GAVE: Promo Memnite ($4), 2 Honor of the Pure ($6) Total=$10
GOT: Geth of the Vault ($3.50), Eternal Dragon ($6), Sigil of the Empty Throne ($2), Captain of the Watch ($4), Student of Warfare ($3), Norin the Wary, Total=$18.50
PROFIT= $8.50
THOUGHTS: I got a lot of value off a guy because he didn't know the value of non-standard cards. If I can move them at their price, I make a lot of profit. If not, they sit in my binder and take up space and tie up money. That is the risk of value trading, but I am fine with it. I also picked up a Norin the Wary for sentimental reasons.
GAVE: 4 Scalding Tarn ($60), 2 Flooded Strand ($80), 4 Misty rainforest ($60), Stomping Grounds ($20), Crucible of Worlds ($25) 3 Life From the Loam ($45), Total=$290
GOT: Mox Pearl ($350)
PROFIT $60
THOUGHTS: I figured I would save the biggest trade for last. This trade took a while since I needed to get the Mox authenticated and valued from the SCG booth. It was MP- or HP+ based on what they said, which is close to where I thought it was. He said it was worth $350. When I talked to the guy, he seemed to want to pick up easier to move staples so he could have more inventory to move. I told him I put the Mox at $300, since it was rough on the back, and that it is something that is hard to move. He got a lot of staples out of it, and I was able to clear out a lot of modern cards. I really didn't want to give up the Strands, but sacrifices have to be made. I was really glad I kept my duals out of my binder, since he probably would have went for those.
Overall, I made around 20 something trades (don't feel like going back to count). I made $307 profit, which is pretty much like getting a free Mox Pearl for trading well. Beyond that, I took $350+140+130+120+100+70=$910 dollars out of my trade binder with the duals and Mox, as I don't plan on trading them. taking into account the profit, my binder is around $600 lighter, which is something to remember. I ended up buying some cards from the guys that I went with: Liliana+Grim Monolith for $35 (61% of SCG value), 2 Geist of Saint Traft and a Foil Dungeon Geists for $40 (69% of SCG value) and $75 in random cards I don't remember for $35. While I don't like buying singles, getting them for a very reduced rate is fine by me, as I would imagine that selling duals and whatnot should lead to at least 90% of SCG value. I am glad I finished my set of duals, though I wonder if I want to have a smaller binder (probably a Monster binder) that would hold my extra duals, revised only, that I would only trade if I got a lot of value on them. I need to think about it, but it is something that might allow me to really improve my returns on trading and help it grow.
There was really no trading to be done on Sunday, so I ended up trying to take the judge test. I really bricked the first question the guys asked me in the interview, but nailed the rest of them and was able to shadow a L2 judge for about an hour or so. I made a few rulings (was correct with all of them) and ended up passing the test. For my efforts, the head judge gave me 3 judge foils. they were Bitterblossom, Flusterstorm (worth $60), and ironically...
GAVE: 2 Phyrexian Metamorph ($18), 2 Gideon ($20) Total=$38
GOT: 2 Snapcaster Mage ($50), Vampire Nocturnus Promo, beat to hell($7.5), Shared Fate, Leveler Total=$57.50
PROFIT=$19.50
THOUGHTS: First deal of the day and it was great. Trading for just the Snapcasters would have been solid, but also getting the Promo Vampire Nocturnus was nice, as it was a throw in for him since the bottom right corner was bent and starting to split. I also got him to throw in a Shared Fate (sentimental reasons) and a Leveler.
GAVE: Immerwolf ($1), Stromkirk Captain ($1) Total=$2
GOT: Predator Ooze ($2.50)
PROFIT= $.50
THOUGHTS: The kid really didn't have many good cards that he wanted to part with, so I decided to upgrade some smaller cards for a bigger one, with a little bit of profit. While this isn't a home run like the previous trade, it is important to try and trade with as many people as you can, and try to get some sort of advantage (either some value or upgrading smaller cards for bigger ones).
GAVE: 2 Buy A box Day of Judgment ($16), Foil Day of Judgment ($4), 2 day of Judgment ($6) Total=$26
GOT: Promo Zombie Apocalypse ($8), Garruk Relentless ($15), Gravecrawler ($10) Total=$33
PROFIT=$7
THOUGHTS: Picking up Gravecrawlers and Messangers seemed to be the way this weekend was going to play out, since they were valued in between 6-10, and picking them up at anything less than 10 was going to be a great profit. The guy really just wanted lots of DOJ, which was fine, since I got some profit. I think Garruk Relentless is going to jump when Scars rotates, so picking them up at $15 seems like a good price. I think that I might take them out of my trade binder and horde them until rotation. The promo Apocalypse isn't really listed on any site, but asking $8 for it seems reasonable.
GAVE: Crucible of Worlds ($25), Vendilion Clique ($35), 3 Time Reversal (4.50) Total=$64.50
GOT: marsh Flats ($10), 2 Verdant Catacombs ($20), Flusterstorm ($16), Ancient Tomb ($10), Riptide Labratory ($13) Total=$69
PROFIT=$4.50
THOUGHTS: Not the greatest trade for me, since I gave up two real playables in Crucible and Clique for some Zen Fetches and other stuff. The Flusterstorm was a great pick up, because they are very rare, and the Tomb and Riptide are Legacy fringe playables, so I was alright with it. Honestly, I thought Clique was only $30, not $35, so the trade was a lot better in my head. It happens though. The fact that there was enough profit built up in my mind means that being wrong on a price won't really burn me. Also getting rid of Time Reversals for $1.50 each was great.
GAVE: 2 Gravecrawler ($20), Phyrexian Obliterator ($25) Total=$45
GOT: 3 Foil Go for the Throat ($12), Foil Geralf's Messanger ($15), 2 Game day Memnite ($8), Buy a Box day of Judgment ($7), Foil Diregraf Ghoul ($2.50) Grim Lavamancer ($3.5) Total=$48
PROFIT=$3
THOUGHTS: Again, I was off on some of the values. I thought that the foil Go For the Throats were around $6-8 each, which would have given me another $6-12 in profit. However, I might be able to move them at $8, which would be sweet. Getting the Foil Messanger was nice, since I planned on moving it at $20.
GAVE: Snapcaster Mage ($25), Falkanrath Aristocrat ($7) Total=$32
GOT: 3 Promo Goblin Guide ($45)
PROFIT=$13
THOUGHTS: People really undervalued the Promo Guide since they were all over. I hope to be able to move 4 of them as a set to try and get some really good modern or Legacy playables.
GAVE: 2 Foil Isolated Chapel ($30), 2 Foil Galvanic Blast ($8) Total=$38
GOT: Foil Cryptic Command ($25), Isolated Chapel ($10), Gravecrawler ($10) Total=$45
PROFIT=$7
THOUGHTS: This was a time when I had no real idea what the Foil Cryptic was worth, so I had to guess. I put it at $20 for him, but thought it might have been worth $40. It was only $25, so I didn't get as much profit out of the deal as I wanted. It seems like I was off on a few estimations, but even though that was the case, having high profit built in helps to avoid getting burned.
GAVE: Snapcaster Mage ($25), 2 Elspeth, Knight Errant Promo ($40), 2 Thorn of Amathyst ($5), Akroma's Memorial ($15), 3 Baneslayer Angel ($21), Urborg, Tomb of Urborg ($18) Total=$124
GOT: Underground Sea ($140)
PROFIT=$16
THOUGHTS: This was a great trade for me, since I was able to move a lot of random smaller cards for the best dual. On some sites, duals are priced at around $120, so I was fine putting it at that. I was happy moving the Elspeths and Urborg, since they are modern playables, which should drop some in the next few months. Baneslayers went up in price a little bit (Thought they were $5 each), and Memorial is a real casual/EDH card that is hard to move. This completed my set of Dual Lands, so I was happy about that.
GAVE: 2 Vorinclix, Voice of Hunger ($8), Elspth, Knight Errant ($30) Total=$38
GOT: 3 Geralf's Messanger ($30), Promo Goblin Guide ($15), 2 Birds of Paradise ($8), Champion of the Parish ($6), 2 Time Reversal ($3) Total=$62
PROFIT=$24
THOUGHTS: These are the kind of trades that I strive for. The guy really devalued most of his cards, which means I was really able to get value trading down. This gave me a set of Promo Guides, helped gie me some more birds, and 3 Messangers will help to fuel more trades later on.
GAVE: Drowned Catacombs ($7), 2 Sulfur Falls ($12), 3 Foil Basic Lands ($3) Total=$22
GOT: 4 Goblin Guide ($24), Ratchet Bomb ($10) Total=$34
PROFIT=$12
THOUGHTS: This was like the previous trade where the guy NEEDED something, and was undervaluing cards so he would get the lands he needed. I was happy to get some value and boost my binder.
GAVE: 2 Gravecrawler ($20), 3 Geralf's Messanger ($30), Glissa the Traitor ($3.50), Thalia, Guardian of Thrabin ($4), Gideon Jura ($10), Daybreak Ranger ($2.50) Total=$70
GOT: 4 Sulfur Falls ($24), 3 hinterland Harbor ($15), Batterskull ($15), Karn Liberated ($15), 3 Grim lavamancer ($10.50)= Total=$79.50
PROFIT= $9.50
THOUGHTS: This guy was severely undervaluing the Innistrad lands ($4/$3 respectively) so I was able to move some staples for lands (Lands are a lot easier to trade) and pick up some cards I might actually use, like Karn. I am picking up some lavamancers, since they are low in price, and if red gets 1-2 strong cards in the next set, RDW might be positioned to return.
GAVE: 3 Ratchet Bomb ($30), 2 Geralf's Messanger ($20), Gravecrawler ($10), Huntmaster of the Fells ($30), Geist of Saint Traft ($25), 3 Champion of the Parish ($18) Total=$133
GOT: Steam Vents ($30), Foil Aether Fial (MP)($20), city of Traitors ($25), 3 Lotus Cobra ($18), Tiaga ($70), Melira ($1.50) Total=$164.50
PROFIT=$31.50
THOUGHTS:This trade was nuts because he was really undervaluing his cards. He put Vents at 20, the Vial at 20 (it had a crease in the bottom right corner, but it is a foil and should be able to trade for $25), and put his City of Traitors at $18. While the trade looks really good, taking a deeper analysis shows how much I killed in it. All of the cards I traded were standard, and I picked up mostly Legacy staples. These trades are the ones that really help boosting a binder and protecting the value of your cards from devaluation.
GAVE: 6 Arid Mesa ($60), 3 Scalding Tarn ($45), Scavenging Ooze ($20), Misty Rainforst ($15) Total=$150
GOT: Wooded Foothills ($22), Tundra ($120) Total=$142
PROFIT=$-8
THOUGHTS: I will admit that I thought that Wooded Foothills was $35, which would have given me a $5 profit. While it seems like I was off on a lot of prices this weekend, that will happen a lot when dealing with all Magic cards. I hated getting rid of Ooze, but moving it for a dual was fine, and losing out on a few bucks doesn't bother me when I move 10 Zen fetches for a Tundra. Sometimes trades are losses, and it is important to limit them. Even though this was a loss, converting Modern cards for Legacy stuff has a value to it as well, so I won't lose sleep over it.
GAVE: Foil Geralf's Messanger ($15)
GOT: Geralf's Messanger ($10), 2 Mosswort Bridge ($4), Foil Ad Nauseum ($4) Total=$18
PROFIT=$3
THOUGHTS: I was happy trading a foil card for a regular copy and a lot of value. While Mosswort Bridge isn't really popular, it sees some modern play and I can probably move them. Beyond that, getting a foil Ad Nauseum is cool because I can probably move it at $7 to a Legacy player.
GAVE: 4 Goblin Guide ($24), Foil Slash Panther ($1.50) Total=$25.50
GOT: Garruk Relentless ($15), Thalia, guardian of Thraben ($4), Promo Grim lavamancer ($3.5), Foil Frost Titan ($4) Total=$26.50
PROFIT=$1
THOUGHTS: While I didn't really gain too much on this, I felt that picking up Garruk would be a good longer term investment, and that the Foil Frost Titan might trade for $6 to someone who wanted it for a cube or EDH deck. Also Goblin Guides won't be in demand in a month, so converting them to cards I can move should help my binder generate quicker.
GAVE: 4 Asceticism ($8), Foil black Sun's Zenith ($12), Sunpetal Grove ($3) Total=$23
GOT: Phyrexian Obliterator ($25)
PROFIT=$2
THOUGHTS: The BSZ sees play, but the other cards are really on the sidelines right now. Moving them to get something I can quickly move should help keep the binder fresh, and trading up for a profit is one of the best things you can do in terms of trading.
GAVE: 2 Drogskul Reaver ($10), 2 Sorin Markov ($12), 3 Geralf's Messanger ($30), Dungeon Geists ($6), 4 Endless Ranks of the Dead ($8), 1 Mikeaus the Lunarch ($4), 4 Stromkirk Noble ($32), Bloodline Keeper ($7), Balefire Dragon ($2), Massacre Worm ($5), 2 Etched Champion ($10), Sunpetal Grove ($3) Total=$126
GOT: Foil Qusali Pridemage ($4), 2 Mishra's Factory (Russian) ($12) Foil Chinese Black Sun's Zenith ($15), Underground Sea ($130)= Total=$161
PROFIT=$35
THOUGHTS: I was able to kill on this trade because he was fine putting the Underground Sea at $100, since it had some play on it. I wanted the BSZ and Pridemage, since foils trade well. The Factories were cool, and I wanted them because I want to run them if I ever play Factory in Legacy. The guy only went through my Standard binder, which was nice, because getting rid of standard for Legacy and making a profit is the best way to trade. Having separate binders really helped this weekend with standard to legacy conversion.
GAVE: 2 Jace the Mind sculptor ($110), Death Baron ($10), Serra Ascendent ($4), Life from the Loam ($15), 4 Blinkmoth Nexus ($60) Total=$199
GOT: FBB Scrubland ($145), 4 Vampire Nocturnus ($80), Volrath's Stronghold ($20), Witchbane Orb ($1) Total=$246
PROFIT=$47
THOUGHTS: Initially, the guy was valuing the Scrubland at around $225. I told him that I wanted to trade for it, but that there was no way it was worth that much. He said that he couldn't go any lower, but I was able to reason with him and get him to come to his senses and price it correctly at around $145. I hated giving up Jaces, but in reality, it was the only way I could get the Scrubland, and I really wanted that Scrubland. Foreign Black Border dual lands are very rare, and they are the "Pimp" version of dual lands (since most people are priced out of Beta duals). I figured that since I paid $30 cash for a Jace, and traded a Huntmaster of the Fells and a Mox Opal for the other, I really was getting a great deal on it if I took into account how I got them initially. I was able to make such a huge profit because he severely undervalued the Nocturnus and Stronghold ($12/$10 respectively) and while they might not be the easiest cards to move, I know that I should be able to dump them for something big, or move them for value to someone else who wants to try and get profit from the casual players.
GAVE: 5 Life from the Loam ($75), Noble Hierarch ($20), Watery Grave ($20), 4 Knight of the Reliquary ($44) Total=$149
GOT:3 Steam Vents ($90), 2 Intuition ($70) Total=$160
PROFIT=$11
THOUGHTS: This guy had the second best binder that I have ever seen in my life (Mine is not the best). He had pages and pages of all of the staples and duals and had 1-2 of each piece of power. He had a list of cards he needed (Noble, Grave, Loam) and I was able to get some value on him. He was a really nice guy, and I was shocked that he valued everything very fair and reasonable (he put the Watery Grave at like $25 and the Steam Vents at $22, so I was able to get a little value). We talked a while, and I learned a lot about gaining value on people and boosting my binder. I ended up saving him about $400 later on when he was trying to trade for a beta Scrubland from someone. I was going to trade for it, but I was in the middle of a trade so he got the first chance. I told him to have a dealer check it if was real, and to give a grade on it for pricing purposes. He came back and the Scrubland was split in half. It was apparently a CE card that was glued to a different card back. I was happy that it was discovered. That is why I always get cards valued over $100 authenticated by a dealer before moving them.
GAVE: 2 Huntmaster of the Fells ($60)
GOT:Foil Surgical Extraction ($12), Foil Strangleroot Geist ($6), Garruk Relentless ($15), Geist of Saint traft ($25), Elite Inquisitor ($2) Total=$60
Profit=$0
THOUGHTS: The guy pulled out his phone early and went to StarCity, so I knew I was not going to get any value. However, I was able to use this to my advantage and pick up cards I speculate were going to go up in value. Foil extraction will see Legacy play forever, Foil Strangeleroot should be moved easily, and Garruk is my sleeper for post rotation. I was having a hard time moving the Huntmasters, so I was happy to get rid of them (though I might want to run 1 in a Pod deck for FNM on Friday, so that is annoying)
GAVE: Promo Memnite ($4), 2 Honor of the Pure ($6) Total=$10
GOT: Geth of the Vault ($3.50), Eternal Dragon ($6), Sigil of the Empty Throne ($2), Captain of the Watch ($4), Student of Warfare ($3), Norin the Wary, Total=$18.50
PROFIT= $8.50
THOUGHTS: I got a lot of value off a guy because he didn't know the value of non-standard cards. If I can move them at their price, I make a lot of profit. If not, they sit in my binder and take up space and tie up money. That is the risk of value trading, but I am fine with it. I also picked up a Norin the Wary for sentimental reasons.
GAVE: 4 Scalding Tarn ($60), 2 Flooded Strand ($80), 4 Misty rainforest ($60), Stomping Grounds ($20), Crucible of Worlds ($25) 3 Life From the Loam ($45), Total=$290
GOT: Mox Pearl ($350)
PROFIT $60
THOUGHTS: I figured I would save the biggest trade for last. This trade took a while since I needed to get the Mox authenticated and valued from the SCG booth. It was MP- or HP+ based on what they said, which is close to where I thought it was. He said it was worth $350. When I talked to the guy, he seemed to want to pick up easier to move staples so he could have more inventory to move. I told him I put the Mox at $300, since it was rough on the back, and that it is something that is hard to move. He got a lot of staples out of it, and I was able to clear out a lot of modern cards. I really didn't want to give up the Strands, but sacrifices have to be made. I was really glad I kept my duals out of my binder, since he probably would have went for those.
Overall, I made around 20 something trades (don't feel like going back to count). I made $307 profit, which is pretty much like getting a free Mox Pearl for trading well. Beyond that, I took $350+140+130+120+100+70=$910 dollars out of my trade binder with the duals and Mox, as I don't plan on trading them. taking into account the profit, my binder is around $600 lighter, which is something to remember. I ended up buying some cards from the guys that I went with: Liliana+Grim Monolith for $35 (61% of SCG value), 2 Geist of Saint Traft and a Foil Dungeon Geists for $40 (69% of SCG value) and $75 in random cards I don't remember for $35. While I don't like buying singles, getting them for a very reduced rate is fine by me, as I would imagine that selling duals and whatnot should lead to at least 90% of SCG value. I am glad I finished my set of duals, though I wonder if I want to have a smaller binder (probably a Monster binder) that would hold my extra duals, revised only, that I would only trade if I got a lot of value on them. I need to think about it, but it is something that might allow me to really improve my returns on trading and help it grow.
There was really no trading to be done on Sunday, so I ended up trying to take the judge test. I really bricked the first question the guys asked me in the interview, but nailed the rest of them and was able to shadow a L2 judge for about an hour or so. I made a few rulings (was correct with all of them) and ended up passing the test. For my efforts, the head judge gave me 3 judge foils. they were Bitterblossom, Flusterstorm (worth $60), and ironically...
Friday, March 16, 2012
Going for a GRAND Prix
So I have been having a little bit of trouble sleeping lately, so I figured that I might as well get started on my Grand Prix Nashville post. I will be going to Nashville in a week in hopes of winning the Grand Prix. However, if I don't get a busted sealed pool and play perfect, that probably won't happen. My real goal for the weekend is to try and trade for +$1000 in trades. I think that while it is a rather lofty goal, it seems rather doable if I stick to my guns and make a lot of solid trades. I will be trying out a new style of trading, so hopefully that will add to my profit margin. The other big thing that I need to do is get some Steam Vents, 4 to be exact. I might have borrowed them (2 from 2 different people) and then traded them away. While I know that is a horrible thing to do, the problem is that the people looking for them were willing to overpay so much that I couldn't say no. Looking back at my first post, 2 were involved in a trade where I was +$96 in trade (and also resulted in the acquisition of 4 dual lands and a Force of Will). The other 2 ended up getting packaged with a few Cunning Wish and some other small stuff for a Watery Grave and a Plateau. Again, the deal was so good that I had to take a risk to hopefully cash in. If I can get a playset of Steam Vents in Nashville, that would really help me clear my slate in terms of debt. While I know that it is rather risky to trade away stuff that isn't mine, I thought about the potential negatives that would be involved if I was called out on it. I could easily just say that "I left that deck at home", or worst case scenario just say to the guy that "Someone made me a really big offer on the cards, and I was hoping to replace them, but have not been able to yet", and then just buy them off StarCity or something and have them for the guy next week. So hopefully I can trade for them and then get rid of my outstanding debts.
Debts aside, the Grand Prix should be rather interesting. It is very important to mentally prepare for a large event where you plan on being cut throat in terms of trading. I am going to try and maximize every dollar possible, and pick up as much stuff as I can. I am going to do so using the following idea.
1) Understanding the price fluctuations of a few key cards- It seems like a no brainer right now. I am going to plan on grinding a lot of Snapcaster Mages, picking them up for $20, as they just dropped, and trade them at $28-30 each. There is a lot of room for profit there, and Snapcaster is a card that a lot of people seem to want, and everyone seems to be willing to take them in a trade. This card seems to be the key to my trading. The problem is that it finally saw a dip on StarCity to $25, dropping from $30. This was horrible timing for me, since I was planning leveraging the price difference to my advantage. I hope that it jumps back up to $30 before Friday. Beyond that, there are some other cards that I plan on using to grind out profit. Geist of Saint Traft is at $28, so I would imagine that I can stretch it to the $25-30 range to pick up a few bucks here and there. Phantasmal Image is seeing a spike due to UB Zombies, and I would love to cash in on them, picking the up at $10 and moving them for $16-18 each. I am hoping to get rid of a lot of Modern stuff, since the Modern PTQ season ends April 1st. I get the feeling that Modern will not be a format that sees popularity year round, so now will be the time to move the Modern stuff I have for either Legacy staples or for a lot of value in standard (I would try and get a 25% bonus for all of the Modern stuff I trade into standard) After that, I would imagine that I can wait 2-3 months for the stores to get overstocked on their Modern stuff, then when their prices drop I should begin trading for them again.
2) The "Buylist Approach"- In the spur of the moment, people are generally erratic mentally, and you can get them to agree to a lot of stupid stuff if you do it properly. I have spent some time watching people take their binders to the dealers and watch as they sell their cards for 25% of what they are actually worth. Part of it is because they don't know any better, and part of it is because they are in a situation in which they really don't want to say "no" very often out of a fear of being difficult. The key is to find someone who will verbally express what is looking for. Most of the time, people will give vague answers because they don't want to look desperate. I am torn between going through someone's binder and pulling cards first or having them do it to me. I am going to try and let them go first, then when they are done, total up the value of my cards, then go through their binder and pull things out at around 50-60% of what it is worth. If I can work on assigning the values to cards (or at least give an initial price where they can come up a little) I should be able to get a significant amount of cards valued lower than what they are on StarCity. Picking up Birds of Paradise at $2-2.50 or Day of Judgment at $2 is a very quick way to make a lot of value really quick)
3) Trading for Foils and Textless cards- I have really been ignoring this most of my trading "career". It seems like people wanting to "pimp out" there deck has gone through the roof, and I would think that there is a huge amount of value to be made in it. I am going to try and pick up a lot of foils cheap, get textless cards for .50 each, and then work on flipping them for an inflated price.
4) Trade for the Promo card- Goblin Guide is the GP Promo this year, and right now it is valued at $15. While there, I should try and trade for them at $8 each, since they should be an easy trade to anyone who likes promos or wants to pimp out their RDW in Modern or Legacy, but has not been able to go to a GP. The promo generally trades cheap there, since a lot of people don't really want it, and the market is flooded with them, since everyone has one.
5) Stick to what I do best- It is important to make sure that I don't forget the things I do best in trading. I am really good at spotting undervalued cards, I am really good talking to people and getting them to undervalue things a little, and I am really good at meeting the needs of the people I trade with. I would imagine that I will probably make a little cheap sheet that I can study on the car ride down of all of the current prices so that I will not be caught off guard by the value of something. Preparation is very important. I need to make sure I am vocal on trades, and do not wait 10 minutes for someone who will be hard to trade with. A great way to trade would be to sit down at a table and let people come up to you and trade, and have others walk by and see your stuff while you are in the middle of a trade. I think that if I can be a little more aggressive on picking up smaller stuff from people a little cheaper than it is worth, I should really be able to come out on top. I am also going to look at the top decks form the recent SCG events to know what cards are in demand.
6) Trade with my mind, not with my heart- I know that there are a lot of cards that I really want and would instinctively trade for. However, I am going to focus on the goal at hand and not get sidetracked on things that will not give me value. I will stay away from FNM promos and random stuff, and will focus on getting the most out of my cards. My long term goal is to have a playset of all of the Legacy and Modern Staples, and then continue to grow my collection more and more. I would also want to own all of the dual lands ever printed. While that is an absurd idea, my general belief is that the safest Magic cards to invest in are Dual lands and Force of Will. They are the most important cards in Magic. The dual lands allow decks to function effectively, and FoW is "The Glue that holds the format together". As long as Magic tournaments exist, Force of Will will almost assuredly be in at least 50% of the decks, and dual lands will be in 90%. I have never seen these cards drop (with the one exception being a "price correction" ever since Legacy initially took off and staples exploded. Since that little self correction, duals and FoW (and all Legacy staples for that matter) seem to gradually be going up, and I want to be stockpiling as many of them as I can so that I can really profit when I want to cash my chips in.
7) Remember that sunk costs exist- I still have two Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas in my binder. I was never able to move them when they were $25, and they are now sitting around $12. So I have two options right now. I can either hold on to them and use them if I ever want to play some Tezzeret legecy deck, or I can try and move them at $12 to clear some space out of my binder and get something else that might be easier to trade. The biggest thing to trading is to constantly keep your cards moving. When cards sit in a binder too long they seem to get comfortable and don't want to move.
8) Understand current trends in play and capitalize on them- The Red Deck has been rather quiet lately, which means that people probably do not know the prices of the main cards in that deck. Chandra's Phoenix is at $8, but I would imagine that I should be able to talk them down to $5 each based on the fact that they don't see any play and will cycle out in 6 months. Coming up with some sort of "With Spirits and Elesh Norn in the format, they probably won't see any more play" idea, people will be more willing to get rid of them. The same thing should be true with Stromkirk Noble and Grim Lavamancer. These cards could really be negotiated down a bit. The same is true for hot cards. Being able to move them in groups to make it easier for people to acquire a playset has perks as well. People generally don't like trading when they really need cards, and are willing to overpay to get it over with. With zombies hot, having sets of Gravecrawlers and messangers will allow me to ask for a little extra in terms of value.
9) Trying out a .50 binder and a $1/$2 binder- After the Standard binder and the Modern/EDH/Legacy binder, I have 2 extra binders that were just sort of random rares and foils. I came up with a pretty decent idea earlier today about going through, sorting the cards by set, and then pricing them out. I would use one binder for anything 50 cents or less, and the other for anything in the .75-$1 range and $1.25-$2 range. This would allow me to try and move the random rares that I have lying around without having to go through and price them individually on the spot. After someone goes through the Standard binder and pulled things, I can encourage them to go through the other ones while I let the next guy look at the Standard binder. This doesn't really add any extra time, but will hopefully help me start moving the random lower value rares. I am debating about being upfront and saying that everything in there is .50, but I am not sure. I am at least happy that I have come up with a plan to start moving the random rares, and at the same time figure out that some cards sitting in the junk pile do not belong (Captain of the Watch is apparently $5). I would imagine that having all of the cards sorted like that will help a lot more in dealing with casual players, and will also eliminate the need to memorize the value of all of these lower tier rares while still having the prices handy to move them. If things start moving out of those binders, I will try and be a little more aggressive in picking up bulk rares to try and feed that binder. 10) Do not feel any pressure for the goals I set- It can be pretty easy to try and overextend and try too hard to make trades work, or take unnecessary risks just to try and get a few bucks. While I am aiming for $1000 in trade value, I fully expect to come short as a result of not enough time, not enough people to trade with, or not enough cards that are in demand. That being said, I am going to work on maximizing my profits and continue to upgrade my binders. I would love to clear out a lot of the smaller value cards, but that is one of those things that will gradually happen through time. I think that the most important goals are to pick up 4 Steam Vents, a Underground Sea, and just enjoy my trip.
Debts aside, the Grand Prix should be rather interesting. It is very important to mentally prepare for a large event where you plan on being cut throat in terms of trading. I am going to try and maximize every dollar possible, and pick up as much stuff as I can. I am going to do so using the following idea.
1) Understanding the price fluctuations of a few key cards- It seems like a no brainer right now. I am going to plan on grinding a lot of Snapcaster Mages, picking them up for $20, as they just dropped, and trade them at $28-30 each. There is a lot of room for profit there, and Snapcaster is a card that a lot of people seem to want, and everyone seems to be willing to take them in a trade. This card seems to be the key to my trading. The problem is that it finally saw a dip on StarCity to $25, dropping from $30. This was horrible timing for me, since I was planning leveraging the price difference to my advantage. I hope that it jumps back up to $30 before Friday. Beyond that, there are some other cards that I plan on using to grind out profit. Geist of Saint Traft is at $28, so I would imagine that I can stretch it to the $25-30 range to pick up a few bucks here and there. Phantasmal Image is seeing a spike due to UB Zombies, and I would love to cash in on them, picking the up at $10 and moving them for $16-18 each. I am hoping to get rid of a lot of Modern stuff, since the Modern PTQ season ends April 1st. I get the feeling that Modern will not be a format that sees popularity year round, so now will be the time to move the Modern stuff I have for either Legacy staples or for a lot of value in standard (I would try and get a 25% bonus for all of the Modern stuff I trade into standard) After that, I would imagine that I can wait 2-3 months for the stores to get overstocked on their Modern stuff, then when their prices drop I should begin trading for them again.
2) The "Buylist Approach"- In the spur of the moment, people are generally erratic mentally, and you can get them to agree to a lot of stupid stuff if you do it properly. I have spent some time watching people take their binders to the dealers and watch as they sell their cards for 25% of what they are actually worth. Part of it is because they don't know any better, and part of it is because they are in a situation in which they really don't want to say "no" very often out of a fear of being difficult. The key is to find someone who will verbally express what is looking for. Most of the time, people will give vague answers because they don't want to look desperate. I am torn between going through someone's binder and pulling cards first or having them do it to me. I am going to try and let them go first, then when they are done, total up the value of my cards, then go through their binder and pull things out at around 50-60% of what it is worth. If I can work on assigning the values to cards (or at least give an initial price where they can come up a little) I should be able to get a significant amount of cards valued lower than what they are on StarCity. Picking up Birds of Paradise at $2-2.50 or Day of Judgment at $2 is a very quick way to make a lot of value really quick)
3) Trading for Foils and Textless cards- I have really been ignoring this most of my trading "career". It seems like people wanting to "pimp out" there deck has gone through the roof, and I would think that there is a huge amount of value to be made in it. I am going to try and pick up a lot of foils cheap, get textless cards for .50 each, and then work on flipping them for an inflated price.
4) Trade for the Promo card- Goblin Guide is the GP Promo this year, and right now it is valued at $15. While there, I should try and trade for them at $8 each, since they should be an easy trade to anyone who likes promos or wants to pimp out their RDW in Modern or Legacy, but has not been able to go to a GP. The promo generally trades cheap there, since a lot of people don't really want it, and the market is flooded with them, since everyone has one.
5) Stick to what I do best- It is important to make sure that I don't forget the things I do best in trading. I am really good at spotting undervalued cards, I am really good talking to people and getting them to undervalue things a little, and I am really good at meeting the needs of the people I trade with. I would imagine that I will probably make a little cheap sheet that I can study on the car ride down of all of the current prices so that I will not be caught off guard by the value of something. Preparation is very important. I need to make sure I am vocal on trades, and do not wait 10 minutes for someone who will be hard to trade with. A great way to trade would be to sit down at a table and let people come up to you and trade, and have others walk by and see your stuff while you are in the middle of a trade. I think that if I can be a little more aggressive on picking up smaller stuff from people a little cheaper than it is worth, I should really be able to come out on top. I am also going to look at the top decks form the recent SCG events to know what cards are in demand.
6) Trade with my mind, not with my heart- I know that there are a lot of cards that I really want and would instinctively trade for. However, I am going to focus on the goal at hand and not get sidetracked on things that will not give me value. I will stay away from FNM promos and random stuff, and will focus on getting the most out of my cards. My long term goal is to have a playset of all of the Legacy and Modern Staples, and then continue to grow my collection more and more. I would also want to own all of the dual lands ever printed. While that is an absurd idea, my general belief is that the safest Magic cards to invest in are Dual lands and Force of Will. They are the most important cards in Magic. The dual lands allow decks to function effectively, and FoW is "The Glue that holds the format together". As long as Magic tournaments exist, Force of Will will almost assuredly be in at least 50% of the decks, and dual lands will be in 90%. I have never seen these cards drop (with the one exception being a "price correction" ever since Legacy initially took off and staples exploded. Since that little self correction, duals and FoW (and all Legacy staples for that matter) seem to gradually be going up, and I want to be stockpiling as many of them as I can so that I can really profit when I want to cash my chips in.
7) Remember that sunk costs exist- I still have two Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas in my binder. I was never able to move them when they were $25, and they are now sitting around $12. So I have two options right now. I can either hold on to them and use them if I ever want to play some Tezzeret legecy deck, or I can try and move them at $12 to clear some space out of my binder and get something else that might be easier to trade. The biggest thing to trading is to constantly keep your cards moving. When cards sit in a binder too long they seem to get comfortable and don't want to move.
8) Understand current trends in play and capitalize on them- The Red Deck has been rather quiet lately, which means that people probably do not know the prices of the main cards in that deck. Chandra's Phoenix is at $8, but I would imagine that I should be able to talk them down to $5 each based on the fact that they don't see any play and will cycle out in 6 months. Coming up with some sort of "With Spirits and Elesh Norn in the format, they probably won't see any more play" idea, people will be more willing to get rid of them. The same thing should be true with Stromkirk Noble and Grim Lavamancer. These cards could really be negotiated down a bit. The same is true for hot cards. Being able to move them in groups to make it easier for people to acquire a playset has perks as well. People generally don't like trading when they really need cards, and are willing to overpay to get it over with. With zombies hot, having sets of Gravecrawlers and messangers will allow me to ask for a little extra in terms of value.
9) Trying out a .50 binder and a $1/$2 binder- After the Standard binder and the Modern/EDH/Legacy binder, I have 2 extra binders that were just sort of random rares and foils. I came up with a pretty decent idea earlier today about going through, sorting the cards by set, and then pricing them out. I would use one binder for anything 50 cents or less, and the other for anything in the .75-$1 range and $1.25-$2 range. This would allow me to try and move the random rares that I have lying around without having to go through and price them individually on the spot. After someone goes through the Standard binder and pulled things, I can encourage them to go through the other ones while I let the next guy look at the Standard binder. This doesn't really add any extra time, but will hopefully help me start moving the random lower value rares. I am debating about being upfront and saying that everything in there is .50, but I am not sure. I am at least happy that I have come up with a plan to start moving the random rares, and at the same time figure out that some cards sitting in the junk pile do not belong (Captain of the Watch is apparently $5). I would imagine that having all of the cards sorted like that will help a lot more in dealing with casual players, and will also eliminate the need to memorize the value of all of these lower tier rares while still having the prices handy to move them. If things start moving out of those binders, I will try and be a little more aggressive in picking up bulk rares to try and feed that binder. 10) Do not feel any pressure for the goals I set- It can be pretty easy to try and overextend and try too hard to make trades work, or take unnecessary risks just to try and get a few bucks. While I am aiming for $1000 in trade value, I fully expect to come short as a result of not enough time, not enough people to trade with, or not enough cards that are in demand. That being said, I am going to work on maximizing my profits and continue to upgrade my binders. I would love to clear out a lot of the smaller value cards, but that is one of those things that will gradually happen through time. I think that the most important goals are to pick up 4 Steam Vents, a Underground Sea, and just enjoy my trip.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
More EV on DA
Since the last "Crack some packs" went rather well, it seemed like it was time to do it again. Here are the results
Pack 1:
Diregraf Captain ($1.50)
Lost in the Woods ($.50)
Ravenous Demon ($.50)
Foil Favor of the Woods ($.25)
Pack Value= $2.75
It is rough to open 2 rares, a foil, and a money uncommon and only end up at 2.75. Gotta start somewhere I guess.
Pack 2:
Tragic Slip ($.75)
Geralf's Messanger ($10)
Pack Value= $10.75
Great pack. Getting the Messanger helps a lot, and the Tragic Slip is a bonus.
Pack 3:
Tragic Slip ($.75)
Seance ($.50)
Pack Value=$1.25
Pack 4:
Requiem Angel ($.50)
Foil Stromkirk Captain ($3.50)
Pack Value=$4
Pack 5:
Lingering Souls ($2)
Increasing Savagery ($.75)
Pack Value=$2.75
Pack 6:
Drogskul Captain ($2)
Zombie Apocalypse ($1)
Foil Headless Skaab ($.25)
Pack Value=$3.25
Pack 7:
Helvault ($1.50)
Pack 8:
Drogskul Reaver ($5)
Stromkirk Captain ($1)
Foil Blood Feud ($.50)
Pack Value=$6.50
Pack 9:
Vault of the Archangel ($4)
Foil Stormbound Geist ($.50)
Pack Value=$4.50
Pack 10:
Strangleroot Geist ($2)
Ghoultree ($1.50)
Pack Value=$3.50
Pack 11:
Diregraf Captain ($1.50)
Increasing Confusion ($1.25)
Pack Value=$2.75
Pack 12:
Beguiler of Wills ($1.50)
After opening 3 Mythics in 12 packs, it seems like the odds of getting a Sorin or any other high priced mythic have dropped rather significantly. We decided to stop here, and I will use the rest of the packs for drafting or trading them for different packs.
Totals:
Packs opened= 12
Expected Value= $42
Total Value= $45
Actual Value per pack=$3.75
Overall it was not bad. It was fun cracking the packs, and in reality, it should help with trading. Mythics are generally pretty easy to trade. I think that I am going to hold onto the Stromkirk Captain Foil, as I figure that as soon as the set stops getting drafting, the supply will sink bigtime. If vampires ever see constructed play, the card will jump bigtime, and if not, it will always be a sweet casual card. I was shocked that we ended up over the EV, based on the fact that there were a lot of dud packs.
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